Quite a change this week, moving away from the threat of a Bartlett high to something much more active. Following on from the previous post, it would appear Xaver served to remind the Atlantic and upper jet that it could indeed play a part in how December unfolds.
Relentless action on the model output at present as a succession of low pressure systems bomb and hurtle towards the UK, the Northwest of Scotland in the main corridor of the left exit region of the Jet. Here the mean profile out until the week before Xmas shows the path quite well.
This weekend sees two such lows very active and lifting wind gusts to above 70mph for places, with more to follow mid-week.
Even out to Christmas Eve the GFS and GEFS suite are keen on more of the same, again the control run and some perturbations of the ensembles serving up monster systems.
A real lively period of model watching coming up as 2013 goes out with a blast. Check out these systems bombing on the excellent yr.no animation here http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html
Found time to add MJO and GWO composites for January which will assist looking ahead as 2014 arrives. The last analog for the first half of December considering the MEI phase and GWO state looked like this, re-analysis shows some of the key features picked out well, with reference to the CONUS troughing, although for our side of the Northern Hemisphere troughing was predicted to be further east.
The vortex still looking strong at present, although hints of strengthening wave 2 activity right at the top of the stratosphere.
Vortex a different proposition from previous years will take some breaking down, lets hope it eventually does and the resulting blocking and cold spillage from the Arctic works in our favour for some proper Winter.
Meanwhile in Egypt.. 112 yrs wait for snow broken.. A Cairngorms Camel..